Despite only 14 points separating Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati) and Jorge Martín (Prima Pramac/Ducati) in the top two positions of the championship, this weekend’s Qatar GP might witness the crowning of the Italian.
However, this is an unlikely scenario: Bagnaia will need to score 23 more points than the Spaniard. If Martín doesn’t score, the victory in the main race would be enough for the current champion.
In the case of a double win, Bagnaia will only be champion if Martín doesn’t achieve more than 14 points: for instance, a second place in the Sprint Race and an 11th place in the main race.
Conversely, if he only scores 23 points, the #1 will need that his opponent scores only one point: which is given to the ninth-placed finisher in the Sprint Race and the 15th in the main race.
There are many possible combinations of results for Bagnaia to be crowned champion already. The key will be leaving Qatar with a 37-point advantage, that is, 23 more than the current 14-point lead he holds.